Patiently Waiting For November

>> Wednesday, August 11, 2010

"The word 'hope' comes up with Obama as often today as it did during his campaign, just in a different context." ~ John Hawkins

My wife and I have been considering a move to the Midwest.

The idea first started from a leisurely search on the internet, in which my curiosity about the value of our house in today's real estate market taught me that real estate prices in my hometown of Wichita are less than half that of similar properties here in the Fredericksburg area.

We learned houses there that are even larger and better than ours are selling for less than half what ours is worth. Initially, it seemed we could sell this house and buy one in the Wichita area for cash and have enough money left over to literally live comfortably for at least a year while I search for a job.

So, we had a real estate man visit our house to do an assessment of it's value, and give recommendations for enhancing it's saleability.

The results were disappointing. Real estate values in our area have plummeted in the last few years.

Curiously, that happened about the same time the Democrats took over Congress.

I blame them and Obama.

It seems we will have to wait until the real estate market improves before putting our house on the market. It is a buyers market right now, not a sellers market.

Of course, I knew that beforehand. I'm not that stupid. I just didn't know how bad it was.

I told my wife we should wait until November when the Republicans re-take the Congress and, consequently, the market improves.

Some might say it will take quite a bit longer for the market to improve even if the Republicans immediately begin to repair the damage done to the economy by the Obama regime's reckless economic policies, but I have my own theory.

Now, I'm far from an economic expert, so my theory may be dead wrong. And, if I'm wrong, I know some economic experts (such as resident Liberal, Jim) will no doubt enumerate the many reasons why. But regardless, here it is:

The stock market is driven by speculation. Economic experts, whose entire existence depends on their ability to analyze and predict the ups and downs of the economy, stake their jobs and their reputations on educated guesses about what the stock market will do tomorrow.

This is called speculation.

The real estate market is influenced by the stock market exactly the same way as all other aspects of the economy. If the stock market is down, the real estate market follows suit. The same applies if the stock market goes up.

The fluctuations of the stock market, and by extension, the real estate market, are directly influenced by the movers and shakers in the industry, through the process of speculation.

When the Republicans win the majority in November, I'm thinking the experts in the industry will speculate (and rightly so) that the Republicans will begin to reverse the failed economic policies of the Obama administration and the stock market will immediately jump up several notches on whatever scale the market is measured.

In the same way it dropped immediately after the Democrats took over as the majority party in 2006.

Coincidence? I think not.

The stock market will improve, and with it, the real estate market.

Thus, come this November, I'm hoping I'm correct and real estate prices will improve enough that the move we're considering will be worth the wait.

I'm waiting for November.


BenT - the unbeliever,  August 12, 2010 at 9:18 AM  

Correlation does not imply causation!
Look it up.

ELAshley August 12, 2010 at 11:44 AM  

Just because Republicans win this Fall (should they take the House & Senate), doesn't mean the stock market will rise, or that a Republican led congress will be able to reverse the damage done by the Obama regime. A double-dip recession is on the horizon, as is the possibility of hyper-inflation if government continues to monetize our debt. Everyone on the right assumes that Republican wins (and takeover of either or both houses) in November means Republicans have learned their lessons, and will listen to the people any better than the Democrats have. This idea also takes for granted the belief that Obama will sign into law anything that conflicts with his ideology, or makes null and void anything he's done in his term thus far.

I commiserate with you on your home troubles, and stand with you against the craptastic agenda Obama has pushed through so far. But please don't think that just because we win this Fall that anything is going to change anytime soon. This recession will not end simply because Republicans win. The unsustainable deficits were running will not end simply because Republicans win. I wish they would, but... let's be realistic.

Remember, America is not in the habit of repealing anything. The repealing of Prohibition was a fluke (primarily because it became obvious to everyone at the time that Prohibition caused more problems than it was intended to solve). I want Obamacare repealed. But it won't happen on HIS watch, unless Congress chooses to de-fund all the crappy portions. And that too assumes Obama will sign said budgets sent to his desk into law.

You say you wanna revolution? Great! Me too. The FIRST step is to take at least one house-- specifically the House of Representatives --this November. But until Obama actually leaves the White House in January 2013, and a Republican takes his place, the Republicans in the House and Senate won't be able to repeal anything. AND, this all assumes elected Republicans have learned the lesson of the Tea Parties. If they'll condescend to actually listen to their constituents we may... MAY... see some proper Hope and Change in 2013.

This November is merely the first step.

I wish you the best on selling your house. Have you considered taking a loss on it just to get it sold? If the prices in Wichita are what you say, you should still be able to come out ahead.

... as to 'causation,' the Liberals pushing of loans to unqualified borrowers, and Dodd and Frank's less than 'frank' public statements about the true state of health of democratic slush funds Fannie and Freddie, well, blame Bush all you want, but Bush PUBLICLY warned about Fannie and Freddie's unsustainability. It was Democrats who poo-pooed the warnings, and charged full-steam ahead.

I'd say the 'correlation,' in at least THIS respect, has quite a lot to do with the causation. The Dems are guilty as shit in this.

BenT - the unbeliever,  August 12, 2010 at 5:51 PM  

EL seems to have time to type so let's discuss America's economic policy.

There's this conservative idea that the ideas proposed by Democrats and the Obama administration have hurt the economy. That's mostly wrong. The stimulus program has saved or created between 800,000 and 1-million jobs according to the Congressional Budget Office. The automotive industry is firmly in the black and so are most of the nation's large financial institutions. It is only because of the adminsitration's actions that the Great Recession didn't turn into the Great Depression v2.

Lots of conservatives place deficit reduction as a national priority, but balk when Democrats offer programs that not only solve national problems but also reduce the national deficit. Programs like the Affordable Care Act which according to the CBO will reduce the deficit $143-billion over the first decade and more than $1-trillion over the second. Should I mention the work the Defense Secretary Robert Gates is doing to bring efficiency and accountability to the Pentagon budget? Everything beyond the stimulus the Democratic party or President Obama has proposed has been either deficit neutral or even reduced the deficit. What are conservatives proposing?

As far as I can see the only thing Republicans would do if given control of Congress would be to keep the Bush Tax Cuts for all incomes (as opposed to Dems who only want to keep the cuts for those making less than $250k). To follow the Republican plans means $163-billion added to the deficit so that millionaires can have an extra $100k per year.

Mark August 12, 2010 at 6:11 PM  

"This recession will not end simply because Republicans win."

Didn't say it would. I said, "When the Republicans win the majority in November,... the experts in the industry will speculate that the Republicans will begin to reverse the failed economic policies of the Obama administration and the stock market will immediately jump up several notches on whatever scale the market is measured."

We've seen this happen on the nightly news programs. The Dow Jones averages suddenly jump to the "highest level in 4 years" (for example), and the reason given is some good news caused speculators to speculate the markets will improve. Likewise, when bad news happens, the market suddenly drops. We see it all the time.

The Republicans don't have to actually do anything right away. The mere expectation that they might is what drives the market. Not actual events.

Mark August 12, 2010 at 6:15 PM  

Eric, this house didn't cost us a cent. It was inherited. Thus, we can't take a loss. It's all 100% profit. But, the more we can get for it, and the cheaper the house we eventually buy (for cash), the more profit we make on the sale. It started out looking as though we could pocket $100,000.00 to live on once the deal was done, but it turned out the value of our house is a lot less than originally estimated.

So we will keep looking at properties in Wichita and the surrounding area, and hope the speculators will come through for us in November.

ELAshley August 13, 2010 at 8:54 AM  
This comment has been removed by the author.
ELAshley August 13, 2010 at 10:35 AM  

I wish you good fortunes in your search, Mark.

As to the other... we can all rest easy knowing, at long last, that BenT cannot think for himself.

"The stimulus program has saved or created between 800,000 and 1-million jobs"

Saved jobs? This is a bullshit Obama trope. And BenT dutifully parrots it. There is no way to honestly measure a job saved-- it's a smoke screen. And if BenT can't see that, well, he's in a dense fog of democratic jabberwocky.

BenT - the unbeliever,  August 13, 2010 at 1:58 PM  

That's a valid point EL. But you can't deny that the stimulus has put people to work, that would not otherwise be employed. In our own community we see streets being paved and sidewalks being built. People working, who might not without stimulus money. Only last week House members were brought back to approve a bill to help states pay for teachers, police and fire fighter salaries. Are those saved jobs? Certainly as a person of faith the idea of something being both real and unmeasurable is not new to you.

ELAshley August 13, 2010 at 4:40 PM  

The stimulus has put SOME people to work. A very FEW people to work; considering how many jobs have been lost.

I can't take anything the House and Senate does at face value. It looks good sitting on the plate, but is the frosting made from Crisco? or real butter?

And whether or not I can grasp the concept of something being both real and unmeasurable is irrelevant considering the bogus numbers touted by the administration of 'x' number of jobs 'saved'. Furthermore, many of those jobs created via the stimulus were government jobs... temporary jobs; ie, census jobs.

Also, with the bills just passed and sent to Obama, four states are receiving money for education they do not need-- their budgets don't reflect the kind of shortfalls that would "require" layoffs in education. This is just more waste coming out of Washington.

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